A Grey Scenario

Humanity’s deeply anchored beliefs, habits and practices, combined with social and political inertia, may counter all positive attempts to move our world towards peace and sustainability. In such case, our world will fall, with near certainty, towards The Dark Scenario. The Gray Scenario is proposed as a safety net to break the fall.


The Bright Scenario, outlined on an other page, is proposed to preserve, strengthen and improve civil society. It is organized under the tried and tested not-for-profit corporate rules. Those rules are safeguarded by state and federal laws. No such well-practiced rules exist for the Gray Scenario. Even if there were safeguards, the rules may not be observed or enforced under the chaotic condition for which the Gray Scenario is proposed.


The 1992 Los Angeles riot that left buildings and blocks burned and destroyed across the city is only one example of the many riots experienced by big cities around the world in years passed. Even in wealthy cities such as Los Angeles and Paris (2007), civility and social order are fragile at the best of times. As our world is about to experience simultaneous hardships caused by economic recessions, social polarization, resource and energy depletion, military conflicts, and environmental disasters, the fragile structures of civility and social order will suffer and may crumble across the world.


When government treasuries are emptied by depressed economies, police officers, fire fighters and other civil servants will go unpaid. Roads and bridges will be neglected dangerously and transportation systems will become unreliable. Electricity, water and other utility services will become scarce. Under these adverse conditions economic, social and civic order will continue to deteriorate and society will slide toward the Dark Scenario. The proposed Gray Scenario outlines a plan to stop the social and economic slide toward the Dark Scenario.


The goal of the Gray Scenario is to prepare neighborhoods and communities to fill the vacuum and supplement or take over where governments and other institutions have failed. The following is a highlight of preparations that can help communities to organize and cope in the Gray Scenario. Much of the details need to be worked out by individual communities, taking into consideration their particular circumstances and available material and human resources. 


  1. 1. The governing principles of the Gray Scenario are not intended to organize for extreme survivalism and urban warfare, rather to restructure civil society through self-governance and supplement or substitute government services wherever those institutions fail to perform. Thus the goal is to facilitate security and maintenance: providing food, shelter, health care, education and utilities in the interest of securing the essential quality of life. Communities will work together to form networks that will handle larger common issues.  Through this process, the Gray Scenario will help preserve peace and social order.

  2. 2. Set up a democratic representative/participatory community governing body. While hard times may spur more people to participate in the preparations for the Gray Scenario, an early start by at least a handful of forward-looking organizers may assure success while a late start may lead to failure and the disintegration of a neighborhood. 

  3. 3. Set up a patrol to put in place basic security should law enforcement fail in a time of urban riot, terrorist attack, or environmental disaster.

  4. 4. Set up a fire fighting team to be in place should the fire department be unable to respond.

  5. 5. Take stock of individuals’ existing skills and provide training in order to form maintenance teams that will repair electric lines, water supply, gas lines, clear sewage lines and storm drains should the city maintenance crews be absent or unable to respond.

  6. 6. Organize food acquisition and transportation teams.

  7. 7. Organize first aid and other health care facilities to the extent community resources allow.

  8. 8. Organize and provide education to the extent community resources can provide.

  9. 9. Organize an outreach team to coordinate with government agencies as much as possible.

  10. 10. Organize a neighborhood team to communicate with other neighborhood organizations and establish community networks to pool resources and build and provide better security, maintenance, health, education and other facilities and services.


There is no limit to how far this system can, at least in theory, be perfected. If highly successful, this could lead to a cellular restructuring of society. In preparation for the Gray Scenario, when the bulky and wasteful centralized government services become absent, they will be replaced by more efficient horizontal networks of self-directed community cells. 


However, unlike the well-practiced nonprofit corporate organizational model of the Bright Scenario, the Grey Scenario plan is not universally tested and its success probability is uncertain. For example, if great disparity develops in the self-organizational success of neighboring communities, instead of cooperative networking, it is likely that in a stressful environment defensive competition, even warfare among them may result.


Holigent.org is developing a handbook on how to organize and be prepared to become a self-directed community and how to activate such plans in times of man-made or natural disasters. Such preparations will decide whether a community will survive and even thrive during economic, social, and environmental disasters. If you are interested in organizing your neighborhood or community to prepare for the Grey Scenario please send us an email expressing you interest and type ‘Grey Scenario’ into the subject line. Email to “transform @ holigent . org”  (Please type this address into your email software)